I recently read a scholarly article about pitching and how it affects your team's chances of winning it all. The conclusions?
- If your starting pitching sucks and your bullpen is stellar, you will probably lose.
- If your starting pitching is formidable and your bullpen is shaky, you will probably lose.
- If your starting pitching and bullpen are "balanced." you have a good chance to win.
Of course implicit in this balanced argument is that you have a great starting rotation and bullpen. A balanced but bad pitching staff would be a loser anyway (hello Blue Jays.)
I guess we'll see how the rest of the playoffs go, but it seems obvious enough to me without all the SABRmetrics.