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Compounding the Obvious


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#1 OFFLINE   raymac46

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Posted 11 October 2018 - 10:52 AM

It's said that the science of big data analytics has revolutionized the game of baseball. That may be but sometimes these propellerheads can go to great lengths to prove something that's pretty obvious if you just think about it.
I recently read a scholarly article about pitching and how it affects your team's chances of winning it all. The conclusions?
  • If your starting pitching sucks and your bullpen is stellar, you will probably lose.
  • If your starting pitching is formidable and your bullpen is shaky, you will probably lose.
  • If your starting pitching and bullpen are "balanced." you have a good chance to win.
Based on this thinking the Red Sox and Astros should be the best bets to win, and the Dodgers and Brewers are the underdogs.

Of course implicit in this balanced argument is that you have a great starting rotation and bullpen. A balanced but bad pitching staff would be a loser anyway (hello Blue Jays.)
I guess we'll see how the rest of the playoffs go, but it seems obvious enough to me without all the SABRmetrics.
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#2 OFFLINE   V.T. Eric Layton

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Posted 11 October 2018 - 11:16 AM

Regardless of analytical analyses, I'm still rooting for the Brewers. :)

#3 OFFLINE   sunrat

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Posted 11 October 2018 - 06:46 PM

I would guess baseball teams knew that shortly after baseball was invented. Certainly obvious, and it's obvious to me that big data always has diminishing returns as it multiplies.
We have a similar game called cricket where people throw balls and someone hits it with a stick and runs while the ball is being chased. It's still highly unpredictable. Australia was looking like losing in the current game in Pakistan until a remarkable performance by one of our batters.
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#4 OFFLINE   raymac46

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Posted 13 October 2018 - 09:26 AM

Last night was the first game in the National League Championship series. The Dodgers had shaky starting pitching and bad play in the field. The Brewers had shaky starting pitching and their bullpen was up and down, but they scored enough runs to win narrowly. All in all not a good show by either team.

@sunrat nothing more fun to watch than Aussie rules football. Rugby League is also interesting (but brutal.)
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#5 OFFLINE   raymac46

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Posted 13 October 2018 - 09:38 AM

Quote

I would guess baseball teams knew that shortly after baseball was invented.
Well in the early days, baseball was a much different game. The starting pitcher was expected to pitch the whole game and the bullpen was a bunch of shlubs that the manager didn't want to use.
This year Justin Verlander (an elite starter) pitched 219 innings started 34 games and finished 1 completely.
In 1902 Cy Young pitched 384 innings, started 45 games and finished 43 completely.
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